Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Will Benson LF
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 2B
- 5 Eugenio Suárez DH
- 6 Nathaniel Lowe 1B
- 7 Tyler Stephenson C
- 8 Rece Hinds RF
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
- 1 Byron Buxton DH
- 2 Austin Martin RF
- 3 Josh Bell 1B
- 4 Ryan Jeffers C
- 5 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 6 Trevor Larnach LF
- 7 Brooks Lee SS
- 8 Ryan Kreidler CF
- 9 Tristan Gray 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with CIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.11 vs actual lineup 3.19
- Player execution +1.81 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.19 projection by 1.81 (scored 5)
- Game variance +1.89 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Friedl 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.79 vs actual lineup 4.74
- Player execution −0.74 R/G Players fell 0.74 short of the lineup's 4.74 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.79 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Martin 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 4.8 — actual was 5 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.