ARCHIVE April 16, 2026
April 16, 2026 · AL Cent

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox

April 16, 2026Rate FieldPartly Cloudy 66°F · 15 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Tampa Bay Rays
11-7
5
vs
HOME
Chicago White Sox
6-13
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TB
Steven Matz
Steven Matz
IP 5.1
HOME · CWS
Anthony Kay
Anthony Kay
IP 2.2

Lineups

AWAY · TB
  1. 1 Chandler Simpson LF
  2. 2 Junior Caminero 3B
  3. 3 Cedric Mullins CF
  4. 4 Yandy Díaz DH
  5. 5 Ryan Vilade 1B
  6. 6 Ben Williamson 2B
  7. 7 Jonny DeLuca RF
  8. 8 Nick Fortes C
  9. 9 Taylor Walls SS
HOME · CWS
  1. 1 Miguel Vargas 3B
  2. 2 Chase Meidroth 2B
  3. 3 Munetaka Murakami 1B
  4. 4 Everson Pereira RF
  5. 5 Edgar Quero C
  6. 6 Tanner Murray SS
  7. 7 Andrew Benintendi DH
  8. 8 Derek Hill CF
  9. 9 Sam Antonacci LF

Box score

  123456789 R
TB 000100103 5
CWS 001001010 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / D- entering this matchup.

AWAY · TB
Kevin Cash
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 2.4 R IBBs 2.1 R
HOME · CWS
Will Venable
D- Lineup 3.2 R Bunts 2.2 R IBBs 1.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · TB
8-2 L1 +17 run diff
LWWWWWWWLW
HOME · CWS
6-4 L3 +9 run diff
LLLWLWWWWW

Season series: 3-0 with TB listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Tampa Bay Rays
  • Manager lineup cost −0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.74 vs actual lineup 4.80
  • Player execution +0.20 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.80 projection by 0.20 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +0.26 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Simpson 0-for-6 batting 1st

HOME · Chicago White Sox
  • Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.90 vs actual lineup 3.86
  • Player execution −0.86 R/G Players fell 0.86 short of the lineup's 3.86 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.90 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Murakami 0-for-4 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 3.9 — actual was 5 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.