RunsLeft › Pitchers › Anthony Kay
Starting Pitcher · Chicago White Sox

Anthony Kay

LHP · Throws Left · Age 31Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
38.0%
38.0% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 4.5 Ks, tonight vs. BOS. Confidence low.
ERA
4.29
FIP
–
IP
84.0
W-L
6-3
WHIP
1.39
K%
17.6
BB%
8.7
GB%
–
K/9
7.2
HR/9
1.2
Drafted by the New York Mets in 2016 (round 1), he was signed by the Chicago White Sox in free agency in December 2025. He made his MLB debut on September 7, 2019.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Red Sox · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Red Sox current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .309

  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 576 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

24% of pitches · .373 xwOBA allowed · 99 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
3%3%5%3%2%3%6%7%6%3%9%10%11%9%7%2%2%2%2%1%2%1%1%1%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.736.000.538.000.354.035.289.342.219–.559.290.417.257.705.702.472.536.757.707.470–––.705
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.019.000.027.000.005.001.018.025.014–.049.029.047.023.051.011.011.012.014.007.008–––.006
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) has allowed .373 xwOBA over 99 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 1,691-pitch sample · 2026 season

Four-Seam Fastball FF
24% usage · 15% whiff · .373 xwOBA · 95.8 mph
Sweeper ST
22% usage · 35% whiff · .290 xwOBA · 82.5 mph
Cutter FC
18% usage · 16% whiff · .449 xwOBA · 90.9 mph
Sinker SI
18% usage · 15% whiff · .385 xwOBA · 95.0 mph
Changeup CH
13% usage · 22% whiff · .277 xwOBA · 85.7 mph
Slider SL
4% usage · 32% whiff · .246 xwOBA · 86.0 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
01020304050605/255/306/56/126/176/226/287/3
Four-Seam FastballSweeperCutter
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026 season
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB27.8 .267 99
vs. RHB14.3 .381 276
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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