ARCHIVE April 16, 2026
April 16, 2026 · NL Cent

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

April 16, 2026PNC ParkPartly Cloudy 75°F · 13 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Washington Nationals
9-10
8
vs
HOME
Pittsburgh Pirates
11-8
7

Starting pitchers

AWAY · WSH
Foster Griffin
Foster Griffin
IP 5.1
HOME · PIT
Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton Ashcraft
IP 5.2

Lineups

AWAY · WSH
  1. 1 James Wood RF
  2. 2 Luis García Jr. 1B
  3. 3 Brady House 3B
  4. 4 Daylen Lile LF
  5. 5 CJ Abrams SS
  6. 6 Jacob Young CF
  7. 7 Jorbit Vivas DH
  8. 8 Drew Millas C
  9. 9 Nasim Nuñez 2B
HOME · PIT
  1. 1 Jake Mangum RF
  2. 2 Nick Gonzales 3B
  3. 3 Oneil Cruz CF
  4. 4 Marcell Ozuna DH
  5. 5 Nick Yorke 1B
  6. 6 Brandon Lowe 2B
  7. 7 Joey Bart C
  8. 8 Konnor Griffin SS
  9. 9 Billy Cook LF

Box score

  12345678910 R
WSH 0000412001 8
PIT 0000420010 7

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · WSH
Blake Butera
C Lineup 1.6 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.4 R
HOME · PIT
Don Kelly
C- Lineup 2.3 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · WSH
6-4 W3 +6 run diff
WWWLWLLWWL
HOME · PIT
5-5 W2 +1 run diff
WWLWWWLLLL

Season series: 2-2 with WSH listed first across 4 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Washington Nationals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.51 vs actual lineup 3.48
  • Player execution +4.52 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.48 projection by 4.52 (scored 8)
  • Game variance +4.49 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Mead 0-for-3 batting 2nd

HOME · Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.18 vs actual lineup 3.18
  • Player execution +3.82 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.18 projection by 3.82 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +3.82 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Griffin 2-for-5 from the 8-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 3.2 — actual was 8 – 7.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.