RunsLeft › Pitchers › Foster Griffin
Starting Pitcher · Washington Nationals

Foster Griffin

LHP · Throws Left · Age 31Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
70.8%
70.8% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 4.5 Ks, tonight vs. COL. Confidence high.
ERA
3.18
FIP
–
IP
144.1
W-L
14-4
WHIP
1.11
K%
22.2
BB%
5.9
GB%
–
K/9
8.2
HR/9
1.4
Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in 2014 (round 1), he was signed by the Washington Nationals in free agency in December 2025. He made his MLB debut on July 27, 2020.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Rockies · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Rockies current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .314

  1. 1 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 WC Willi Castro SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KK Kyle Karros RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CN Connor Norby RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CC Cole Carrigg SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Carrigg
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Cutter

FC · lead pitch

31% of pitches · .319 xwOBA allowed · 183 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
0%1%3%2%2%2%8%8%6%2%8%14%15%10%4%2%3%2%1%1%3%2%2%1%0%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
–.354.904.185.703.248.281.237.281.349.153.253.473.308.297–.185.684.000–.000.180.647––
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
–.003.031.004.013.004.021.019.018.006.012.034.069.031.013–.005.016.000–.000.004.016––
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Cutter (31% usage) has allowed .319 xwOBA over 183 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

7 pitch types · 2,225-pitch sample · 2026 season

Cutter FC
31% usage · 18% whiff · .319 xwOBA · 88.3 mph
Four-Seam Fastball FF
17% usage · 19% whiff · .329 xwOBA · 91.6 mph
Sweeper ST
14% usage · 27% whiff · .310 xwOBA · 80.0 mph
Changeup CH
11% usage · 34% whiff · .255 xwOBA · 82.4 mph
Sinker SI
10% usage · 16% whiff · .346 xwOBA · 91.3 mph
Curveball CU
10% usage · 22% whiff · .356 xwOBA · 77.8 mph
Splitter FS
6% usage · 34% whiff · .225 xwOBA · 81.4 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040506/277/37/87/147/197/318/68/18
CutterFour-Seam FastballSweeper
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026 season
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB29.3 .304 148
vs. RHB21.2 .314 391
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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