ARCHIVE April 15, 2026
April 15, 2026 · NL Cent

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds

April 15, 2026Great American Ball ParkPartly Cloudy 80°F · 13 mph, In From RF
AWAY
San Francisco Giants
6-12
3
vs
HOME
Cincinnati Reds
11-7
8

Starting pitchers

AWAY · SF
Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle
IP 4
HOME · CIN
Rhett Lowder
Rhett Lowder
IP 6.2

Lineups

AWAY · SF
  1. 1 Willy Adames SS
  2. 2 Luis Arraez 2B
  3. 3 Casey Schmitt DH
  4. 4 Rafael Devers 1B
  5. 5 Matt Chapman 3B
  6. 6 Jung Hoo Lee RF
  7. 7 Daniel Susac C
  8. 8 Will Brennan LF
  9. 9 Drew Gilbert CF
HOME · CIN
  1. 1 TJ Friedl CF
  2. 2 Matt McLain 2B
  3. 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
  4. 4 Sal Stewart 1B
  5. 5 Eugenio Suárez DH
  6. 6 Spencer Steer LF
  7. 7 Rece Hinds RF
  8. 8 Tyler Stephenson C
  9. 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
SF 020000100 3
CIN 430100000 8

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · SF
Tony Vitello
B- Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 1.4 R
HOME · CIN
Terry Francona
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 0.8 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · SF
1-8 L2 -25 run diff
LLWLLLLL?L
HOME · CIN
1-9 L8 -46 run diff
LLLLLLLLWL

Season series: 1-2 with SF listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · San Francisco Giants
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.48 vs actual lineup 3.47
  • Player execution −0.47 R/G Players fell 0.47 short of the lineup's 3.47 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.48 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Adames 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Cincinnati Reds
  • Manager lineup cost −0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.79 vs actual lineup 4.88
  • Player execution +3.12 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.88 projection by 3.12 (scored 8)
  • Game variance +3.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 4.8 — actual was 3 – 8.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.