RunsLeft › Pitchers › Tyler Mahle
Starting Pitcher · San Francisco Giants

Tyler Mahle

RHP · Throws Right · Age 31Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
58.6%
58.6% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 4.5 Ks, tonight vs. MIL. Confidence medium.
ERA
4.53
FIP
–
IP
113.1
W-L
4-10
WHIP
1.31
K%
22.8
BB%
8.5
GB%
–
K/9
8.6
HR/9
1.3
Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in 2013 (round 7), he was signed by the San Francisco Giants in free agency in January 2026. He made his MLB debut on August 27, 2017.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Brewers · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Brewers current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .316

  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jackson Chourio SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 DH David Hamilton LHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AV Andrew Vaughn RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Vaughn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

48% of pitches · .324 xwOBA allowed · 348 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
2%4%7%6%1%4%5%10%8%4%4%8%9%11%8%0%1%2%2%1%0%1%1%1%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.697.241.058.221.454.308.281.296.247.519.408.287.386.390.475–.000.455.266.696.691.419.707.695–
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.011.010.004.013.006.011.014.029.020.023.015.024.035.043.038–.000.008.005.009.001.003.006.006–
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) has allowed .324 xwOBA over 348 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

5 pitch types · 3,300-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
48% usage · 19% whiff · .324 xwOBA · 92.5 mph
Splitter FS
27% usage · 25% whiff · .308 xwOBA · 85.8 mph
Cutter FC
14% usage · 15% whiff · .303 xwOBA · 87.8 mph
Slider SL
10% usage · 23% whiff · .379 xwOBA · 84.5 mph
Sinker SI
1% usage · .259 xwOBA
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040505/266/246/297/57/118/18/78/18
Four-Seam FastballSplitterCutter
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB25.6 .280 401
vs. RHB18 .361 407
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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