Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Alex Bregman 3B
- 3 Seiya Suzuki DH
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Michael Busch 1B
- 6 Dansby Swanson SS
- 7 Miguel Amaya C
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Matt Shaw RF
- 1 Trea Turner SS
- 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
- 3 Bryce Harper 1B
- 4 Adolis García RF
- 5 Edmundo Sosa 2B
- 6 J.T. Realmuto C
- 7 Alec Bohm 3B
- 8 Brandon Marsh CF
- 9 Otto Kemp LF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 6-1 with CHC listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.85 vs actual lineup 4.86
- Player execution +6.14 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.86 projection by 6.14 (scored 11)
- Game variance +6.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Happ 0-for-4 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.62 vs actual lineup 3.64
- Player execution −1.64 R/G Players fell 1.64 short of the lineup's 3.64 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.62 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Schwarber 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.6 — actual was 11 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.