Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ildemaro Vargas 2B
- 2 Corbin Carroll RF
- 3 Geraldo Perdomo SS
- 4 Jose Fernandez DH
- 5 Nolan Arenado 3B
- 6 Luken Baker 1B
- 7 James McCann C
- 8 Tim Tawa LF
- 9 Jorge Barrosa CF
- 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 2 Taylor Ward LF
- 3 Pete Alonso 1B
- 4 Samuel Basallo C
- 5 Dylan Beavers DH
- 6 Leody Taveras CF
- 7 Colton Cowser RF
- 8 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 9 Blaze Alexander 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| BAL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with AZ listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.20 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.44 vs actual lineup 4.24
- Player execution −0.24 R/G Players fell 0.24 short of the lineup's 4.24 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.44 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Carroll 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.97 vs actual lineup 4.92
- Player execution −1.92 R/G Players fell 1.92 short of the lineup's 4.92 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.97 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Henderson 0-for-5 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.4 – 5.0 — actual was 4 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.