RunsLeft › Pitchers › Trevor Rogers
Starting Pitcher · Baltimore Orioles

Trevor Rogers

LHP · Throws Left · Age 28Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
45.2%
45.2% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 4.5 Ks, tonight vs. CHC. Confidence medium.
ERA
4.70
FIP
–
IP
84.1
W-L
6-7
WHIP
1.32
K%
18.1
BB%
8.1
GB%
–
K/9
6.9
HR/9
1.0
Drafted by the Miami Marlins in 2017 (round 1), he was acquired by the Baltimore Orioles via trade from the Miami Marlins in July 2024. He made his MLB debut on August 25, 2020.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Cubs · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Cubs current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .325

  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 558 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

40% of pitches · .319 xwOBA allowed · 459 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
1%3%4%4%3%4%9%12%7%4%6%12%12%8%4%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.233.127.204.267.414.418.288.261.297.483.302.357.386.301.301.691.000.344.000.701.705.689.388––
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.003.004.009.011.013.015.024.032.022.018.018.042.047.023.012.008.000.004.000.004.005.003.003––
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) has allowed .319 xwOBA over 459 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

5 pitch types · 5,371-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
40% usage · 21% whiff · .319 xwOBA · 93.4 mph
Changeup CH
23% usage · 23% whiff · .303 xwOBA · 87.3 mph
Sinker SI
15% usage · 9% whiff · .368 xwOBA · 93.1 mph
Cutter FC
13% usage · 30% whiff · .320 xwOBA · 82.8 mph
Sweeper ST
8% usage · 34% whiff · .175 xwOBA · 78.2 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040505/245/296/46/96/146/206/267/3
Four-Seam FastballChangeupSinker
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB25.9 .264 295
vs. RHB19.1 .324 1,040
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