Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Colt Keith 1B
- 2 Kevin McGonigle 3B
- 3 Gleyber Torres DH
- 4 Kerry Carpenter RF
- 5 Riley Greene LF
- 6 Dillon Dingler C
- 7 Matt Vierling CF
- 8 Zach McKinstry 2B
- 9 Javier Báez SS
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Austin Martin LF
- 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 4 Ryan Jeffers C
- 5 Victor Caratini 1B
- 6 Josh Bell DH
- 7 Matt Wallner RF
- 8 Royce Lewis 3B
- 9 Brooks Lee SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| MIN | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-2 with DET listed first across 2 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.88 vs actual lineup 3.78
- Player execution +2.22 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.78 projection by 2.22 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.12 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Báez 2-for-4 from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.48 vs actual lineup 3.51
- Player execution +4.49 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.51 projection by 4.49 (scored 8)
- Game variance +4.52 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lewis 2-for-3 from the 8-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 3.5 — actual was 6 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.