Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Eugenio Suárez DH
- 6 Spencer Steer LF
- 7 Tyler Stephenson C
- 8 Noelvi Marte RF
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
- 1 Austin Slater RF
- 2 Agustín Ramírez C
- 3 Jakob Marsee CF
- 4 Otto Lopez SS
- 5 Heriberto Hernández LF
- 6 Connor Norby 1B
- 7 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 8 Leo Jiménez DH
- 9 Javier Sanoja 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-2 with CIN listed first across 2 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.48 vs actual lineup 3.49
- Player execution +2.51 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.49 projection by 2.51 (scored 6)
- Game variance +2.52 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Friedl 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.12 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.93 vs actual lineup 4.82
- Player execution −1.82 R/G Players fell 1.82 short of the lineup's 4.82 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.93 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 4.9 — actual was 6 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.