ARCHIVE April 7, 2026
April 7, 2026 · AL Cent

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox

April 7, 2026Rate FieldSunny 36°F · 9 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Baltimore Orioles
5-6
4
vs
HOME
Chicago White Sox
4-7
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · BAL
Trevor Rogers
Trevor Rogers
IP 6
HOME · CWS
Shane Smith
Shane Smith
IP 3.2

Lineups

AWAY · BAL
  1. 1 Taylor Ward LF
  2. 2 Gunnar Henderson DH
  3. 3 Pete Alonso 1B
  4. 4 Samuel Basallo C
  5. 5 Dylan Beavers RF
  6. 6 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
  7. 7 Colton Cowser CF
  8. 8 Coby Mayo 3B
  9. 9 Blaze Alexander SS
HOME · CWS
  1. 1 Chase Meidroth 2B
  2. 2 Lenyn Sosa 1B
  3. 3 Miguel Vargas DH
  4. 4 Colson Montgomery SS
  5. 5 Edgar Quero C
  6. 6 Tanner Murray 3B
  7. 7 Andrew Benintendi LF
  8. 8 Luisangel Acuña CF
  9. 9 Derek Hill RF

Box score

  123456789 R
BAL 000010030 4
CWS 002000000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / D- entering this matchup.

AWAY · BAL
Craig Albernaz
C+ Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.8 R
HOME · CWS
Will Venable
D- Lineup 3.2 R Bunts 2.2 R IBBs 1.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · BAL
3-7 L2 -25 run diff
LLWWLLLLWL
HOME · CWS
6-4 L3 +9 run diff
LLLWLWWWWW

Season series: 1-0 with BAL listed first across 1 prior meeting.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Baltimore Orioles
  • Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.97 vs actual lineup 4.93
  • Player execution −0.93 R/G Players fell 0.93 short of the lineup's 4.93 projection (scored 4)
  • Game variance −0.97 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Alonso 0-for-4 batting 3rd

HOME · Chicago White Sox
  • Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.40 vs actual lineup 4.32
  • Player execution −2.32 R/G Players fell 2.32 short of the lineup's 4.32 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.40 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Vargas 0-for-4 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 5.0 – 4.4 — actual was 4 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.