ARCHIVE April 6, 2026
April 6, 2026 · NL East

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins

April 6, 2026loanDepot parkRoof Closed 72°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Cincinnati Reds
7-3
2
vs
HOME
Miami Marlins
6-4
0

Starting pitchers

AWAY · CIN
Brandon Williamson
Brandon Williamson
IP 6.2
HOME · MIA
Janson Junk
Janson Junk
IP 7.1

Lineups

AWAY · CIN
  1. 1 TJ Friedl CF
  2. 2 Matt McLain 2B
  3. 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
  4. 4 Sal Stewart 1B
  5. 5 Eugenio Suárez DH
  6. 6 Spencer Steer LF
  7. 7 Will Benson RF
  8. 8 Tyler Stephenson C
  9. 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
HOME · MIA
  1. 1 Austin Slater RF
  2. 2 Agustín Ramírez C
  3. 3 Jakob Marsee CF
  4. 4 Otto Lopez SS
  5. 5 Heriberto Hernandez LF
  6. 6 Connor Norby 1B
  7. 7 Xavier Edwards DH
  8. 8 Leo Jimenez 2B
  9. 9 Javier Sanoja 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
CIN 000100010 2
MIA 000000000 0

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · CIN
Terry Francona
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 0.8 R IBBs 0.8 R
HOME · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R

Recent form

AWAY · CIN
1-9 L8 -46 run diff
LLLLLLLLWL
HOME · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW

Season series: 0-2 with CIN listed first across 2 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Cincinnati Reds
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.13 vs actual lineup 3.14
  • Player execution −1.14 R/G Players fell 1.14 short of the lineup's 3.14 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.13 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Stephenson HR from the 8-hole

HOME · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.86 vs actual lineup 4.85
  • Player execution −4.85 R/G Players fell 4.85 short of the lineup's 4.85 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −4.86 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Marsee 0-for-4 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 4.9 — actual was 2 – 0.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.