ARCHIVE April 3, 2026
April 3, 2026 · NL West

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants

April 3, 2026Oracle ParkClear 59°F · 8 mph, Out To CF
AWAY
New York Mets
4-4
10
vs

Starting pitchers

AWAY · NYM
Nolan McLean
Nolan McLean
IP 5.1
HOME · SF
Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · NYM
  1. 1 Francisco Lindor SS
  2. 2 Juan Soto LF
  3. 3 Bo Bichette 3B
  4. 4 Luis Robert CF
  5. 5 Brett Baty 1B
  6. 6 Mark Vientos DH
  7. 7 Marcus Semien 2B
  8. 8 Carson Benge RF
  9. 9 Francisco Alvarez C
HOME · SF
  1. 1 Willy Adames SS
  2. 2 Rafael Devers DH
  3. 3 Luis Arraez 2B
  4. 4 Matt Chapman 3B
  5. 5 Jung Hoo Lee RF
  6. 6 Heliot Ramos LF
  7. 7 Harrison Bader CF
  8. 8 Patrick Bailey C
  9. 9 Jerar Encarnacion 1B

Box score

  123456789 R
NYM 200300302 10
SF 000002010 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade D+ / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · NYM
Carlos Mendoza
D+ Lineup 2.9 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 0.9 R
HOME · SF
Tony Vitello
B- Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 1.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · NYM
5-4 L1 +2 run diff
LW?WWLWLLW
HOME · SF
1-8 L2 -25 run diff
LLWLLLLL?L

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · New York Mets
  • Manager lineup cost +0.22 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.99 vs actual lineup 4.77
  • Player execution +5.23 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.77 projection by 5.23 (scored 10)
  • Game variance +5.01 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Semien HR from the 7-hole

HOME · San Francisco Giants
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.12 vs actual lineup 3.14
  • Player execution −0.14 R/G Players fell 0.14 short of the lineup's 3.14 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.12 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Devers 0-for-4 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 5.0 – 3.1 — actual was 10 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.