RunsLeft › Pitchers › Nolan McLean
Starting Pitcher · New York Mets

Nolan McLean

RHP · Throws Right · Age 25Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
61.5%
61.5% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 5.5 Ks, tonight vs. CWS. Confidence high.
ERA
3.34
FIP
–
IP
142.2
W-L
9-8
WHIP
1.16
K%
27.3
BB%
9.1
GB%
–
K/9
10.2
HR/9
0.9
Drafted by the New York Mets in 2023 (round 3). He made his MLB debut on August 16, 2025.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. White Sox · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. White Sox current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .319

  1. 1 MV Miguel Vargas RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Vargas
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CM Colson Montgomery LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colson Montgomery
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CM Chase Meidroth RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase Meidroth
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 SA Sam Antonacci LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sam Antonacci
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 AB Andrew Benintendi LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Benintendi
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TP Tristan Peters LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Peters
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Munetaka Murakami LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Munetaka Murakami
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BM Braden Montgomery SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Braden Montgomery
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RG Randal Grichuk RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randal Grichuk
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Sinker

SI · lead pitch

32% of pitches · .273 xwOBA allowed · 291 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
2%1%1%1%0%8%6%5%3%1%12%17%14%8%3%2%3%3%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.691.699.172.702.703.289.197.094.064–.283.325.297.111.513.415.281.064.264.072.698.475.167.548.691
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.013.010.002.010.002.023.012.005.002–.033.054.041.008.017.008.010.002.004.001.006.006.004.008.006
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Sinker (32% usage) has allowed .273 xwOBA over 291 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

7 pitch types · 3,004-pitch sample · 2026/2025 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Sinker SI
32% usage · 12% whiff · .273 xwOBA · 95.1 mph
Four-Seam Fastball FF
19% usage · 28% whiff · .364 xwOBA · 96.1 mph
Sweeper ST
17% usage · 21% whiff · .406 xwOBA · 84.9 mph
Curveball CU
15% usage · 37% whiff · .144 xwOBA · 81.8 mph
Cutter FC
10% usage · 20% whiff · .380 xwOBA · 92.1 mph
Changeup CH
7% usage · 26% whiff · .323 xwOBA · 88.1 mph
Slider SL
1% usage · .180 xwOBA · 86.6 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040506/307/57/107/197/308/68/118/17
SinkerFour-Seam FastballSweeper
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB27.3 .313 445
vs. RHB28.7 .268 305
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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