Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jake Mangum RF
- 2 Nick Gonzales 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 5 Oneil Cruz CF
- 6 Nick Yorke 3B
- 7 Jared Triolo SS
- 8 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 9 Henry Davis C
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 6 Spencer Steer LF
- 7 Will Benson RF
- 8 Tyler Stephenson C
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-0 with PIT listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.85 vs actual lineup 4.76
- Player execution +3.24 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.76 projection by 3.24 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Mangum 0-for-5 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.81 vs actual lineup 2.74
- Player execution +0.26 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.74 projection by 0.26 (scored 3)
- Game variance +0.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
McLain 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 2.8 — actual was 8 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.