ARCHIVE March 30, 2026
March 30, 2026 · NL East

Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins

March 30, 2026loanDepot parkRoof Closed 72°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Chicago White Sox
1-3
9
vs
HOME
Miami Marlins
3-1
4

Starting pitchers

AWAY · CWS
Davis Martin
Davis Martin
IP 5
HOME · MIA
Chris Paddack
Chris Paddack
IP 4

Lineups

AWAY · CWS
  1. 1 Miguel Vargas 1B
  2. 2 Munetaka Murakami DH
  3. 3 Austin Hays LF
  4. 4 Colson Montgomery 3B
  5. 5 Lenyn Sosa 2B
  6. 6 Tristan Peters CF
  7. 7 Everson Pereira RF
  8. 8 Edgar Quero C
  9. 9 Luisangel Acuña SS
HOME · MIA
  1. 1 Jakob Marsee CF
  2. 2 Xavier Edwards 2B
  3. 3 Agustín Ramírez DH
  4. 4 Liam Hicks C
  5. 5 Otto Lopez SS
  6. 6 Owen Caissie RF
  7. 7 Connor Norby 1B
  8. 8 Griffin Conine LF
  9. 9 Graham Pauley 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
CWS 004401000 9
MIA 000210010 4

Manager comparison

Both managers grade D- / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · CWS
Will Venable
D- Lineup 3.2 R Bunts 2.2 R IBBs 1.1 R
HOME · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R

Recent form

AWAY · CWS
6-4 L3 +9 run diff
LLLWLWWWWW
HOME · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
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Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Chicago White Sox
  • Manager lineup cost +0.18 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.88 vs actual lineup 4.70
  • Player execution +4.30 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.70 projection by 4.30 (scored 9)
  • Game variance +4.12 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Pereira 2-for-4 from the 7-hole

HOME · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.45 vs actual lineup 2.41
  • Player execution +1.59 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.41 projection by 1.59 (scored 4)
  • Game variance +1.55 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Ramírez 0-for-4 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 2.5 — actual was 9 – 4.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.