Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Kody Clemens 1B
- 2 Byron Buxton CF
- 3 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 4 Matt Wallner RF
- 5 Josh Bell DH
- 6 Victor Caratini C
- 7 Trevor Larnach LF
- 8 Royce Lewis 3B
- 9 Tristan Gray SS
- 1 Taylor Ward LF
- 2 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 3 Pete Alonso DH
- 4 Ryan Mountcastle 1B
- 5 Samuel Basallo C
- 6 Tyler O'Neill RF
- 7 Coby Mayo 3B
- 8 Dylan Beavers CF
- 9 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.04 vs actual lineup 4.03
- Player execution +1.97 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.03 projection by 1.97 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.96 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lewis HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.93 vs actual lineup 3.91
- Player execution +4.09 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.91 projection by 4.09 (scored 8)
- Game variance +4.07 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Mayo 2-for-4 from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 3.9 — actual was 6 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.