RunsLeft › Pitchers › Shane Baz
Starting Pitcher · Baltimore Orioles

Shane Baz

RHP · Throws Right · Age 27Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
45.4%
45.4% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 4.5 Ks, tonight vs. TB. Confidence medium.
ERA
4.02
FIP
–
IP
145.2
W-L
4-13
WHIP
1.35
K%
21.2
BB%
7.9
GB%
–
K/9
8.2
HR/9
0.7
Drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2017 (round 1), he was acquired by the Baltimore Orioles via trade from the Tampa Bay Rays in December 2025. He made his MLB debut on September 20, 2021.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Rays · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Rays current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .308

  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .268
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

39% of pitches · .327 xwOBA allowed · 586 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
3%6%5%4%2%3%8%11%8%4%3%7%12%10%7%0%1%1%1%2%0%0%1%1%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.443.161.157.390.701.396.337.294.262.149.460.203.354.300.521–.221.443.217.656–.296.716.400.698
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.013.009.008.014.015.013.027.033.022.006.012.013.041.031.036–.001.006.003.010–.001.004.004.005
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) has allowed .327 xwOBA over 586 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

7 pitch types · 6,234-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
39% usage · 17% whiff · .327 xwOBA · 96.1 mph
Knuckle Curve KC
29% usage · 29% whiff · .259 xwOBA · 85.4 mph
Cutter FC
14% usage · 21% whiff · .340 xwOBA · 89.7 mph
Changeup CH
10% usage · 23% whiff · .301 xwOBA · 88.2 mph
Sinker SI
4% usage · 12% whiff · .302 xwOBA · 95.3 mph
Slider SL
3% usage · 18% whiff · .462 xwOBA
Unknown UN
1% usage · .706 xwOBA
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
01020304050606/236/297/77/127/208/18/78/18
Four-Seam FastballKnuckle CurveCutter
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB25.2 .297 839
vs. RHB20.9 .317 769
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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