ARCHIVE March 29, 2026
March 29, 2026 · NL Cent

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds

March 29, 2026Great American Ball ParkPartly Cloudy 60°F · 11 mph, R To L
AWAY
Boston Red Sox
1-2
2
vs
HOME
Cincinnati Reds
2-1
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · BOS
Connelly Early
Connelly Early
IP 5.1
HOME · CIN
Rhett Lowder
Rhett Lowder
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · BOS
  1. 1 Roman Anthony DH
  2. 2 Trevor Story SS
  3. 3 Jarren Duran CF
  4. 4 Willson Contreras 1B
  5. 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
  6. 6 Caleb Durbin 3B
  7. 7 Masataka Yoshida LF
  8. 8 Marcelo Mayer 2B
  9. 9 Connor Wong C
HOME · CIN
  1. 1 TJ Friedl LF
  2. 2 Matt McLain 2B
  3. 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
  4. 4 Sal Stewart DH
  5. 5 Eugenio Suárez 3B
  6. 6 Spencer Steer 1B
  7. 7 Dane Myers CF
  8. 8 Tyler Stephenson C
  9. 9 Noelvi Marte RF

Box score

  123456789 R
BOS 000200000 2
CIN 000003000 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · BOS
Chad Tracy
C- Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.1 R IBBs 0.2 R Interim
HOME · CIN
Terry Francona
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 0.8 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · BOS
5-5 W1 -3 run diff
WLWWWLLWLL
HOME · CIN
1-9 L8 -46 run diff
LLLLLLLLWL

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Boston Red Sox
  • Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.53 vs actual lineup 3.48
  • Player execution −1.48 R/G Players fell 1.48 short of the lineup's 3.48 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.53 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Anthony 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Cincinnati Reds
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.15 vs actual lineup 3.12
  • Player execution −0.12 R/G Players fell 0.12 short of the lineup's 3.12 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Cruz 0-for-4 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 3.1 — actual was 2 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.