Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Roman Anthony LF
- 2 Trevor Story SS
- 3 Jarren Duran DH
- 4 Willson Contreras 1B
- 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 6 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Carlos Narváez C
- 9 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Eugenio Suárez DH
- 6 Spencer Steer LF
- 7 Will Benson RF
- 8 Jose Trevino C
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| CIN | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.42 vs actual lineup 4.40
- Player execution +0.60 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.40 projection by 0.60 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.58 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Duran 0-for-3 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.01 vs actual lineup 3.94
- Player execution +2.06 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.94 projection by 2.06 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.99 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 4.4 – 4.0 — actual was 5 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.