Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Roman Anthony LF
- 2 Trevor Story SS
- 3 Jarren Duran DH
- 4 Willson Contreras 1B
- 5 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 6 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 7 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B
- 8 Carlos Narváez C
- 9 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 Matt McLain 2B
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Eugenio Suárez DH
- 6 Spencer Steer LF
- 7 Tyler Stephenson C
- 8 Noelvi Marte RF
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.87 vs actual lineup 4.82
- Player execution −1.82 R/G Players fell 1.82 short of the lineup's 4.82 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.87 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Contreras 0-for-4 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.79 vs actual lineup 4.82
- Player execution −4.82 R/G Players fell 4.82 short of the lineup's 4.82 projection (scored 0)
- Game variance −4.79 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Friedl 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 4.8 — actual was 3 – 0.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.