The Breakdown · Comeback Win · 2026-07-04

Astros Erase Five-Run Hole, Walk Off Rays on Fourth of July

HOU def. TB · July 4, 2026 · Final: Astros 10, Rays 8

Houston trailed 7-2 after three and a half innings on Saturday, a hole that left the Astros with a 6.1% chance of winning. By the end of the ninth, they had a walk-off and a 10-8 final.

Tampa Bay built the lead quickly. Rays third baseman Junior Caminero homered in the top of the first, but Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez answered immediately in the bottom half, putting Houston ahead 2-1 with a two-run shot to left center. The Rays reclaimed the lead in the top of the second on a two-run homer from Tampa Bay's Richie Palacios, then extended it through the third — a sacrifice fly from Victor Mesa Jr. and an RBI single from Jonny DeLuca pushed it to 6-2. A Caminero fielder's choice in the top of the fourth made it 7-2, and that was the depth of the hole.

Houston Astros catcher Yainer Diaz started the climb in the bottom of the fourth, connecting on a two-run homer to right center that made it 7-4. Alvarez trimmed it to 7-5 in the bottom of the fifth with an RBI single that scored Nick Allen.

DeLuca added a solo shot in the top of the seventh to push Tampa Bay back to 8-5, but the Astros answered in the bottom half. Alvarez's sacrifice fly scored Taylor Trammell to make it 8-6. Then Houston's Isaac Paredes singled home Allen to cut it to one, and Astros left fielder Zach Dezenzo followed with an RBI single that scored Jose Altuve and tied it at 8.

The game stayed level into the ninth. Alvarez stepped in with Altuve aboard and drove a fly ball to center field for his second home run of the night — his 29th of the season — and the Astros won it, 10-8.

The Comeback

Largest deficit
5 runs — in the top of the 4th
Win-probability nadir
6.1% (down 5 in the top of the 4th)
Lead flipped for good
bottom of the 9th
Lead changes
3
Final
HOU 10, TB 8 — won by 2, walk-off

Scoring Summary

Inn.PlayScore
T1 Junior Caminero homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field. 1-0
B1 Yordan Alvarez homers (28) on a fly ball to left center field. Jose Altuve scores. 1-2
T2 Richie Palacios homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. 3-2
T3 Victor Mesa Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Taylor Trammell. Jonathan Aranda scores. 4-2
T3 Jonny DeLuca singles on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Junior Caminero scores. Cedric Mullins to 3rd. 5-2
T3 Richie Palacios lines out to left fielder LaMonte Wade Jr. 6-2
T4 Junior Caminero reaches on a fielder's choice. Taylor Walls scores. Hunter Feduccia to 3rd. Throwing error by shortstop Nick Allen. 7-2
B4 Yainer Diaz homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Christian Walker scores. 7-4
B5 Yordan Alvarez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Nick Allen scores. Jose Altuve to 3rd. 7-5
T7 Jonny DeLuca homers (5) on a line drive to left field. 8-5
B7 Yordan Alvarez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Taylor Trammell scores. Nick Allen to 3rd. 8-6
B7 Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to left fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Nick Allen scores. Jose Altuve to 2nd. 8-7
B7 Zach Dezenzo singles on a line drive to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Jose Altuve scores. Isaac Paredes to 3rd. 8-8
B9 Yordan Alvarez homers (29) on a fly ball to center field. Jose Altuve scores. 8-10

Box score

Final 10–8

Line score

  123456789 R H E
TB 123100100 8 9 0
HOU 200210302 10 11 1

HOUWinning team

Batting

BatterABRHRBIBBSOAVG
Jose Altuve2B 332 020 .234
Yordan AlvarezDH 423 600 .324
Isaac Paredes3B 401 100 .251
Christian Walker1B 311 001 .238
Zach DezenzoLF 101 100 .208
Cam SmithRF 400 000 .220
Yainer DiazC 411 200 .235
Taylor TrammellCF 411 002 .257
Nick AllenSS 321 010 .244
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF 300 001 .267

Pitching

PitcherIPHRERBBSONP
Hunter Brown 4.067 74382
Nate Pearson 1.000 02018
Cristian Javier 2.021 11439
Bryan King 1.010 00222
Josh Hader 1.000 01117

TBLosing team

Batting

BatterABRHRBIBBSOAVG
Jonathan ArandaDH 511 004 .287
Junior Caminero3B 422 211 .291
Cedric MullinsCF 311 022 .215
Ryan Vilade1B 500 001 .267
Victor Mesa Jr.LF 210 121 .176
Jonny DeLucaRF 512 200 .265
Richie Palacios2B 412 210 .233
Taylor WallsSS 411 011 .229
Hunter FeducciaC 300 010 .231

Pitching

PitcherIPHRERBBSONP
Drew Rasmussen 5.065 51277
Cole Sulser 1.023 31020
Garrett Cleavinger 0.210 00114
Craig Kimbrel 1.110 00119
Casey Legumina 0.012 21012