RunsLeft › Pitchers › Cristian Javier
Starting Pitcher · Houston Astros

Cristian Javier

RHP · Throws Right · Age 29Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
31.2%
31.2% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 4.5 Ks, tonight vs. ATH. Confidence low.
ERA
6.44
FIP
–
IP
36.1
W-L
1-4
WHIP
1.68
K%
18.0
BB%
10.2
GB%
–
K/9
7.4
HR/9
1.7
He was selected by the Houston Astros from the Texas Rangers in November 2019. He made his MLB debut on July 25, 2020.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Athletics · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Athletics current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .297

  1. 1 JM Jeff McNeil LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeff McNeil
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LB Lawrence Butler LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lawrence Butler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 HB Henry Bolte RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Bolte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JH Jonah Heim SH .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonah Heim
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ZG Zack Gelof RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zack Gelof
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Carlos Cortes LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Cortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Max Muncy RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Muncy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DW Donovan Walton LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Donovan Walton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AW Alika Williams RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alika Williams
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (6% usage) projects to .224 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

45% of pitches · .390 xwOBA allowed · 179 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
3%6%9%6%2%3%9%14%8%3%1%5%13%9%5%0%0%1%1%1%0%0%1%0%0%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.701.263.261.266.000.609.354.416.422.248.698.335.308.438.701–.010.300.254.127–––.699–
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.022.017.022.015.000.017.031.059.033.006.009.017.040.038.037–.000.004.004.001–––.003–
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) has allowed .390 xwOBA over 179 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

6 pitch types · 1,813-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
45% usage · 19% whiff · .390 xwOBA · 92.7 mph
Sweeper ST
24% usage · 31% whiff · .206 xwOBA · 80.1 mph
Changeup CH
18% usage · 33% whiff · .323 xwOBA · 85.1 mph
Knuckle Curve KC
6% usage · 13% whiff · .416 xwOBA
Sinker SI
6% usage · 12% whiff · .427 xwOBA
Cutter FC
1% usage · .365 xwOBA
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040506070804/34/87/47/87/127/198/98/18
Four-Seam FastballSweeperChangeup
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB19.1 .321 215
vs. RHB19 .355 216
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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