PITCHER MATCHUP

Will Dion vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Will Dion's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Will Dion's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .306vs RHH xwOBA .257Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 26%Curveball 20%Cutter 9%Sinker 4%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Will Dion, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-31 game page →