Relief Pitcher
Will Dion
Reliever
Model projection · strikeout prop
6.3%
6.3% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 3.5 Ks, tonight vs. MIA. Confidence low.
Tonight's Matchup
vs. Marlins · pregame
Projected xwOBA vs. Marlins current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .313
-
1
OL
Otto Lopez
RHB
.313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (26% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
2
XE
Xavier Edwards
SH
.310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (26% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3
JM
Jakob Marsee
LHB
.310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4
KS
Kyle Stowers
LHB
.323
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (20% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5
JS
Javier Sanoja
RHB
.298
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (20% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6
HH
Heriberto Hernández
RHB
.313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
7
OC
Owen Caissie
LHB
.304
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (20% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8
JM
Joe Mack
LHB
.304
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9
GC
Griffin Conine
LHB
.342
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (4% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Four-Seam Fastball
FF · lead pitch
41% of pitches · .241 xwOBA allowed · 60 BIP · where it goes, what it costs
Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) has allowed .241 xwOBA over 60 balls in play — his most-used pitch.
Arsenal
usage × whiff, ranked
5 pitch types · 506-pitch sample · 2026 season
Four-Seam Fastball FF
41% usage · 22% whiff · .241 xwOBA · 91.2 mph
Changeup CH
26% usage · 41% whiff · .221 xwOBA · 78.0 mph
Curveball CU
20% usage · 12% whiff · .374 xwOBA · 80.9 mph
Cutter FC
9% usage · 26% whiff · .515 xwOBA · 87.2 mph
Sinker SI
4% usage · .140 xwOBA
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
Four-Seam FastballChangeupCurveball
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026 season
| Split | K% | xwOBA | Sample |
|---|
| vs. LHB | 25 |
.306 |
48 |
| vs. RHB | 29.1 |
.257 |
85 |
Live · client-hydrated
Market lines
current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day
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DFS picks
today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly
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