PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .333Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Cutter 21%Sinker 17%Knuckle Curve 12%Slider 12%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 BB Byron Buxton RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 RL Royce Lewis RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-23 game page →