PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Cutter 21%Sinker 18%Slider 11%Knuckle Curve 11%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BB Byron Buxton RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.