PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Cutter 21%Sinker 18%Slider 11%Knuckle Curve 11%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .276
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.