PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Cutter 21%Sinker 18%Knuckle Curve 12%Slider 12%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-29 game page →