PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .351vs RHH xwOBA .338Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 24%Cutter 20%Sinker 16%Knuckle Curve 13%Slider 12%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LT Leody Taveras SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CM Coby Mayo RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .213 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.