PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Cutter 21%Sinker 18%Slider 11%Knuckle Curve 11%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .206 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.