PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .325Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Cutter 21%Sinker 18%Knuckle Curve 11%Slider 11%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .363
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .208 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.