PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Cutter 21%Sinker 18%Slider 11%Knuckle Curve 11%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .222 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Brett Baty LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 FL Francisco Lindor SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 638 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JS Juan Soto LHB .384
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .439 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.