PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .338Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Cutter 21%Sinker 17%Knuckle Curve 12%Slider 12%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .222 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 BB Brett Baty LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 FL Francisco Lindor SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 576 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JY Jared Young LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LT Luis Torrens RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.