PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .340Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 24%Cutter 20%Sinker 16%Knuckle Curve 13%Slider 12%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LH Liam Hicks LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LJ Leo Jiménez RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Jiménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-26 game page →