PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .342vs RHH xwOBA .338Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 24%Cutter 20%Sinker 16%Knuckle Curve 13%Slider 12%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MS Matt Shaw RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-01 game page →