PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Cutter 21%Sinker 18%Slider 11%Knuckle Curve 11%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 590 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 563 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 609 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 623 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.