PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Cutter 21%Sinker 18%Slider 11%Knuckle Curve 11%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 MS Matt Shaw RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 GA Gabriel Arias RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Arias
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.