PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .340Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 24%Cutter 20%Sinker 16%Knuckle Curve 13%Slider 12%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 602 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 AR Austin Riley RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DS Dominic Smith LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-21 game page →