PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .339Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 24%Cutter 20%Sinker 16%Knuckle Curve 13%Slider 12%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 GS George Springer RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MS Myles Straw RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-11 game page →