PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .333Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Cutter 21%Sinker 17%Knuckle Curve 12%Slider 12%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 GS George Springer RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JS Jesús Sánchez LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jesús Sánchez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.