PITCHER MATCHUP

Walker Buehler vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Walker Buehler's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Walker Buehler's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Cutter 21%Sinker 18%Slider 11%Knuckle Curve 11%Changeup 8%Sweeper 7%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Walker Buehler, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.