PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .277vs RHH xwOBA .346Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 29%Cutter 14%Slider 9%Sinker 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BB Byron Buxton RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.