PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .342Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 30%Cutter 13%Slider 8%Sinker 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KC Kody Clemens SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RL Royce Lewis RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BB Byron Buxton RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Austin Martin RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RK Ryan Kreidler RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Kreidler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.