PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .268vs RHH xwOBA .361Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 27%Cutter 14%Slider 10%Sinker 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Byron Buxton RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 RL Royce Lewis RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Austin Martin RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 VC Victor Caratini SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (27% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-18 game page →