PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .342Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 30%Cutter 13%Slider 8%Sinker 1%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Michael Massey LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 592 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MG Maikel Garcia RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Maikel Garcia
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.