PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .271vs RHH xwOBA .364Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 26%Cutter 14%Slider 11%Sinker 1%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SP Salvador Perez RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 547 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LT Lane Thomas RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MM Michael Massey LHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 NL Nick Loftin RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-21 game page →