PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .346Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 30%Cutter 13%Slider 9%Sinker 1%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WC Willi Castro SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KK Kyle Karros RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CC Cole Carrigg SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Carrigg
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.