PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .342Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 30%Cutter 13%Slider 8%Sinker 1%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .304
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 624 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SS Spencer Steer RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DM Dane Myers RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JT Jose Trevino RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Trevino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.