PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .277vs RHH xwOBA .346Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 29%Cutter 14%Slider 9%Sinker 1%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 617 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JT Jose Trevino RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Trevino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-24 game page →