PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .283vs RHH xwOBA .357Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Splitter 28%Cutter 14%Slider 9%Sinker 1%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 691 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 596 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AB Alec Bohm RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 BH Bryce Harper LHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BS Bryson Stott LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 556 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-06 game page →