PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .271vs RHH xwOBA .364Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 26%Cutter 14%Slider 11%Sinker 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-01 game page →