PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .342Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 30%Cutter 13%Slider 8%Sinker 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 LC Luis Campusano RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.