PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .280vs RHH xwOBA .354Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 28%Cutter 14%Slider 9%Sinker 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LC Luis Campusano RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.