PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .280vs RHH xwOBA .354Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 28%Cutter 14%Slider 9%Sinker 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .375
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (28% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-18 game page →