PITCHER MATCHUP

Tyler Mahle vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Tyler Mahle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Tyler Mahle's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .342Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Splitter 30%Cutter 13%Slider 8%Sinker 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Tyler Mahle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .376
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BM Brice Matthews RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (30% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.