PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .254vs RHH xwOBA .309Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Changeup 22%Sinker 14%Cutter 11%Sweeper 10%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 VC Victor Caratini SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 AM Austin Martin RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RK Ryan Kreidler RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Kreidler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.