PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .262vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 23%Sinker 14%Cutter 13%Sweeper 9%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 RL Royce Lewis RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Austin Martin RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-10 game page →