PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .255vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Changeup 22%Sinker 14%Cutter 11%Sweeper 10%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KC Kody Clemens SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RL Royce Lewis RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BB Byron Buxton RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Austin Martin RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RK Ryan Kreidler RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Kreidler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.