PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .275vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 23%Sinker 14%Cutter 13%Sweeper 9%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 RG Riley Greene LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MV Matt Vierling RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Vierling
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KC Kerry Carpenter LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kerry Carpenter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-29 game page →