PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .262vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 23%Sinker 14%Cutter 13%Sweeper 9%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MM Matt McLain RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TF TJ Friedl LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 DM Dane Myers RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.