PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .255vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Changeup 22%Sinker 14%Cutter 11%Sweeper 10%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 624 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 551 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.