PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .264vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Changeup 23%Sinker 15%Cutter 13%Sweeper 8%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JB JJ Bleday LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TF TJ Friedl LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-03 game page →