PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .262vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 23%Sinker 14%Cutter 13%Sweeper 9%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .267
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-16 game page →