PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .286vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Changeup 24%Sinker 16%Cutter 14%Sweeper 8%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 408 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RD Rodolfo Durán RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rodolfo Durán
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.