PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .255vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Changeup 22%Sinker 14%Cutter 11%Sweeper 10%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.