PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .275vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 23%Sinker 14%Cutter 13%Sweeper 9%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.