PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .259vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Changeup 22%Sinker 14%Cutter 12%Sweeper 10%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LC Luis Campusano RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.