PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .264vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Changeup 23%Sinker 15%Cutter 13%Sweeper 8%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 522 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 554 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-09 game page →