PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .255vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Changeup 22%Sinker 14%Cutter 11%Sweeper 10%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 628 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.