PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .261vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Changeup 23%Sinker 14%Cutter 13%Sweeper 9%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 543 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 565 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.