PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .255vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Changeup 22%Sinker 14%Cutter 11%Sweeper 10%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.