PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .259vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Changeup 23%Sinker 14%Cutter 12%Sweeper 9%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 500 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BJ Blaze Jordan RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Jordan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-27 game page →