PITCHER MATCHUP

Trevor Rogers vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Trevor Rogers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Trevor Rogers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .275vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Changeup 23%Sinker 14%Cutter 13%Sweeper 9%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Trevor Rogers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 602 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AR Austin Riley RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DS Dominic Smith LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-24 game page →